July 4, 2008.

A RUN-OFF WON BY VIOLENCE

After having terrorised the people, Robert Mugabe and his military junta presided over an election that they made sure they could not lose. After they had made it impossible for anyone to stand against Mugabe, the Joint Operations Command headed people in droves to the polling stations. It was the only way Robert Mugabe could win an election.

Mugabe fought the election run-off with a military-style campaign run by generals and security chiefs. Hundreds of command bases were set up, run by liberation war veterans and soldiers and manned by youth militias tied to the ruling party, who hunted down opposition activists and beat them, sometimes to death.

Genocide Watch said the killing tactics employed during the 1980s Gukurahundi massacres in Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands have been imported to the present day in full. "ZANU-PF militias, the Zimbabwe army and police, and ZANU-PF mobs have pushed Zimbabwe to Stage 6, the preparation stage immediately preceding political mass murder," Genocide Watch reported.

Genocide Watch said in its report issued on June 25: "Families of Zimbabwe's opposition leaders are being targeted for brutal execution." Genocide Watch, which classifies genocide as a process that develops in eight stages namely classification, symbolization, dehumanization, organization, polarization, preparation, extermination and denial, says Zimbabwe is now on Stage 6, preparation, a prelude to the extermination stage.

"Mutilation of bodies is one of the surest signs of the de-humanizing of targeted groups during genocide and politicide (political mass murder)," the report says. "ZANU-PF's hate speech, torture, and murder have terrorized Zimbabwe since the Movement for Democratic Change defeated Mugabe and the ZANU-PF party in March's elections. Now ZANU-PF has stepped up its violence to openly kill leaders of the MDC and their families. Such acts are prelude to every politicide or genocide," the report says.

"ZANU-PF spokesmen accuse their victims of being traitors or terrorists, when in fact ZANU-PF is the real perpetrator of atrocities," the report says. "Mirroring is a predictor of intent to commit crimes against a targeted group."

Genocide Watch said the phenomenon of "mirroring" is a strange but common psychological mechanism of denial used by mass murderers. The MDC says more than 90 of its followers have been murdered, more than 200 missing and more than 25,000 having been beaten, tortured and displaced from their homes. In addition, nearly 8,000 homes have been torched.

Concern is now growing for the thousands of refugees who sought shelter in the capital and other urban centres. Some temporarily sought refuge at the South African Embassy on June 26. After announcing his boycott of the run-off vote, Morgan Tsvangirai had to seek refuge in the Dutch Embassy in Harare after being tipped off that the feared military police (the red berets) were after him.

Genocide Watch said the terror campaign was being directed by Air Marshall Perrence Shiri, who was commander of the infamous North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, which carried out Mugabe's genocide against 20,000 civilians in Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands between 1983 and 87.

The noble idea that informed the liberation struggle of the 1970s that from the ashes of colonialism would emerge a new Zimbabwe in which a democratic dispensation would be created exclusively by citizens through an electoral system has been irreparably shattered. Now Zimbabweans are told that anyone who does not have the ballot ink on his/her finger after the elections will be dealt with.

African and other world leaders, including Nelson Mandela and the UN Security Council, roundly condemned the violence leading up to the June 27 election in which Mugabe was the only candidate. The run-off election was triggered by what many observers characterized as a fraudulent first round of elections on March 29. Local and international human rights groups have consistently criticized the poor human rights record of the Mugabe regime and his disastrous economic policies.

On June 30, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon criticised the run-off as "deeply flawed", saying the result was not legitimate. "The Secretary-General has said repeatedly that conditions were not in place for a free and fair election and observers have confirmed this from the deeply flawed process," Ban's spokesperson, Marie Okabe, said in a statement as the UN head visited Tokyo.

"The outcome did not reflect the true and genuine will of the Zimbabwean people or produce a legitimate result," the statement said. Ban "encourages efforts of the two sides to negotiate a political solution that would end violence and intimidation," and that the UN was "ready to help in any way possible to produce this result," the statement said.

An African observer mission on June 29 said that Zimbabwe's presidential run-off election won by President Robert Mugabe was not free and fair and called for the holding of fresh elections as son as possible. The Pan African Parliament (PAP) observer mission described the environment during the run-up to the election as "tense, hostile and volatile" resulting in an unfair election. Head of the PAP mission, Marwick Khumalo, told journalists in Harare that the period leading to the June 27 vote was characterised by an electoral campaign marred by high levels of intimidation, violence, displacement of people, abductions and loss of life.

"The mission observed traces of intimidation and violence in all provinces visited. Houses were burnt down; people assaulted and sustained serious injuries. A number of cases of abduction, some of which resulted in death were reported," said Khumalo.

"Violence disrupted normal life of ordinary Zimbabweans and led to internal displacement of people," added Marwick Khumalo.

"Regrettably, the state-controlled media was used to discredit the opposition candidate in all forms," said Khumalo, who also questioned the independence and impartiality of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC).

"The role of ZEC in this particular election has been more wanting than the previous election. Its deafening silence was alarming and created a perception of a sequestrated body," he said.

Khumalo expressed concern at the politicisation of Zimbabwe's security forces. He said: "Overall, the Mission observed that the leadership of the security forces have not changed their position of overt support to the ruling party, following the March harmonised elections. The Mission was dismayed by uniformed forces on duty wearing the ruling party regalia."

Announcing the run-off result just 48 hours after the poll, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) said this time round Mugabe won with a landslide margin, garnering 2,150,269 votes or 85.5% of the vote compared to Tsvangirai's 233,000 votes. Lovemore Sekeramayi insisted that there was a high turnout in the rural constituencies which were difficult for election monitors to cover. In Harare, though, there was appalling voter apathy. Election observers gave details of the unusually high number of spoilt votes - 131,481, many with insulting remarks about Mugabe.

The number of votes polled by Mugabe is open to scrutiny since it appears double the 1,079,730 ballots in the first round. The exact number of voters might never be known as the security forces were reportedly in charge of the voting process and the only poll monitors allowed were from the ruling ZANU (PF). There were reports that in some provinces figures were not tallying with the number of votes cast. For example, "in Mudzi two polling stations reported 15,000 votes for Mugabe when they are only 3,000 people in those wards", said a group that observed the electoral process.

The same scenario was repeated in most polling stations in all the three Mashonaland provinces.

Having been humiliated in the first round, Mugabe was desperate to reverse the decision of the people by forcing them to vote for him in the run-off. Political commentators pointed out that Mugabe does not seem to be bothered that such a victory would be completely hollow. ‘He will be president in his own eyes only - and that seems to be enough for him,' said one analyst. ‘He is increasingly isolated and living in a world of his own. The trouble is that the military junta is prepared to cooperate with his illusions in order to safeguard their own luxurious lifestyles and avoid prosecution for human rights abuses at the International Court of Justice.'

Contrary to the state-run newspaper's report of a "massive turnout", Khumalo said the turnout was "very, very low". The commission said turnout was 42.37%, almost similar to the turnout on March 29. It is ironic that the ZEC only took 48 hours before announcing the votes in the run-off election and yet could not demonstrate the same efficiency during the first March 29 election when it took five weeks.

The name of the MDC president remained on ballot papers after electoral authorities refused to accept his withdrawal saying he had been late in notifying them of his decision to quit. Despite the bravado coming from ZANU (PF), Robert Mugabe endured the humiliation of going through a single-candidate presidential election.

The Pan African Parliament (PAP), observer mission said many of those who turned out to vote in the run-off election did so out of fear of retribution by militia of Mugabe's ruling ZANU (PF) party if they had boycotted the poll as urged by Tsvangirai.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission also condemned the run-off poll saying it did not conform to the regional bloc's guidelines on the conduct of free and fair elections. They said pre-vote conditions impinged on its credibility. The group's observers, rarely critical of a member's election, raised concerns about the political violence and displacement of people.

"The process leading to the presidential run-off election held on 27 June 2008 did not conform to SADC principles and guidelines governing democratic elections . . . The election did not represent the will of the people of Zimbabwe," the mission said in a statement.

On June 30, the African Union election-observer delegation became the third set of observers to declare Zimbabwe's one-man election undemocratic, increasing pressure on Robert Mugabe as he met his peers for the first day of an AU summit overshadowed by the crisis in Zimbabwe. In a report on the run-off, the delegation said it had been blighted by violence, intimidation and media bias.

In an uncharacteristically sharp rebuke, the report said "violence in the run-down to the elections" added to "the fear of violence (which) deterred popular participation in the electoral process", and the lack of "equitable access to the public media" had rendered the process undemocratic.

"Against the background of the foregoing factors and the context of the AU declaration on the principles governing democratic elections in Africa, it is the considered view of the AU observer mission that the election process fell short of the accepted AU standards," it concluded.

At the inaugural ceremony on June 29, it was visible that even Robert Mugabe is acutely aware that it would be wrong to describe his so-called "landslide" victory as originating from the genuine expression of the will of the people of Zimbabwe. The victory is clearly covered by a history of vengeance: first against British colonialists and now against his own people.

Swearing on the Bible to uphold Zimbabwe's constitution and the rule of law, which is now in tatters, Mugabe promised to serve Zimbabwe "well and truly". Meanwhile, his motley collection of youth militia, backed by the army and police in civilian clothing, continued a reign of terror across the country - abducting, murdering, raping and beating MDC supporters in a wave of retribution for the low poll on June 27. It is not surprising that the mood across the country was sombre with little sign of celebrations for Mugabe's fraudulent and embarrassing re-election.

While on April 18, 1980 Mugabe made history by becoming the first African nationalist leader of Zimbabwe, on June 29, 2008 he made history once again as a leader to be inaugurated president even when he and his party had lost harmonised elections after citizens had pronounced that they wanted a break from 28 years of corrupt administration.

What historians will record is that Mugabe lost the March 29 election and sought to change the hearts and minds of citizens through state-sponsored violence. This loss will continue to haunt him personally to his grave. Clearly it is diabolical for him to seek to argue that he needed a new 5-year mandate to do what he has not been able to do for the last 28 years.

The problem that the 84-year ZANU (PF) dictator faces is that of legitimacy. ZANU (PF) had been aiming for a big turnout to try and add a gloss of legitimacy to Mugabe's inevitable victory. Compounding this dilemma is the report by international observers of many deliberately spoilt ballots, which in some areas outnumbered votes cast for Mugabe.

Robert Mugabe may impose himself as Zimbabwe's president, but evidently may be powerless to change the fortunes of the country. The economy is on its knees and there is no evidence that there is any real plan of action to address the serious economic challenges that confront Zimbabwe. Mugabe may seek to argue that the land-reform programme is vulnerable if he were to step down but the reality on the ground confirms that the economic situation may have been exacerbated by the manner in which the programme has been implemented.

Zimbabweans find themselves more vulnerable today than at independence with inflation at more than two million percent and unemployment at more than eighty-five percent. Since the first round of elections, shortages of basic goods have worsened. Food shortages are predicted to become a full-scale famine. The government says it has imported 600,000 tonnes of maize but does not have the foreign currency to pay for it.

Public services have come to a virtual standstill and power and water outages have continued daily. It must be accepted that political rhetoric that does not address the concrete economic realities facing the country will not advance any national interest.

Zimbabwe has abundant natural and human resources to be an example to the rest of Africa. It is now merely a symbol of what happens when a dictator takes charge, and those who might rein him in, simply look away. Today Zimbabweans are fleeing with their talents abroad. Zimbabwe's socio-economic crisis has ruined a once prosperous country, saddling it with the world's highest hyper-inflation and straining neighbouring nations, especially South Africa and Botswana, with a flood of millions of economic refugees. Some three million Zimbabweans have already fled to neighbouring South Africa and thousands live in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and other European countries to escape the economic collapse.

The burning question now is how likely the economies of the Southern African region will remain stable, not only with the imminent flood of refugees into neighbouring countries, but also the inevitable pulling away of foreign investments in a region that has done little to end the Zimbabwean crisis. The South African rand has steadily weakened in the weeks leading up to the Zimbabwe election run-off - a fact that has been attributed to President Thabo Mbeki's "quiet diplomacy". The security of the 2010 World Cup, which South Africa is set to host, is also coming under threat, with pressure groups calling on FIFA to remove the honour from Mbeki's country because of his role in the Zimbabwean crisis.

There is also the New African Partnership for Development (NEPAD), the African Marshall Plan, which was crafted on underlying principles of a commitment to good governance, democracy, human rights and conflict resolution. The recognition that maintenance of these standards is fundamental to the creation of an environment conducive to investment and long-term economic growth should be considered paramount.

NEPAD seeks to attract increased investment, capital flows and funding, providing an African-owned framework for development as the foundation for partnership at regional and international levels.

In July 2002, the Durban AU summit supplemented NEPAD with a Declaration on Democracy, Political, Economic and Corporate Governance. According to the Declaration, states participating in NEPAD ‘believe in just, honest, transparent, accountable and participatory government and probity in public life'. Accordingly, they ‘undertake to work with renewed determination to enforce', among other things, the rule of law; the equality of all citizens before the law; individual and collective freedoms; the right to participate in free, credible and democratic political processes; and adherence to the separation of powers, including protection for the independence of the judiciary and the effectiveness of parliaments.

Many African countries cannot claim to have fostered democracy in their own countries. Of Africa's 53 heads of state, 13 seized power by force, 10 have been in office for more than 20 years and two inherited their positions from their fathers. Furthermore, observers point out that only 23 of Africa's 53 heads of state have been elected.

Therefore, the African Union is highly unlikely to snub Robert Mugabe or pass judgement on Zimbabwe's crisis. Mugabe still has many supporters among the AU's leaders, and there are still tough meetings ahead before the continental body is ready to take a stand on this latest challenge to African democracy. Instead, they conceivably concluded the summit by urging Mugabe and the Movement for Democratic Change to negotiate. South Africa's foreign ministry said that talks on the creation of a "transitional government" to cope with Zimbabwe's "challenges" were needed.

The statement was the first time South Africa has publicly called for a unity government and appeared to dictate the line that the African Union later took. Tshwane (formerly Pretoria) is the designated southern African mediator in Zimbabwe although President Thabo Mbeki has been widely accused of being ineffective and too soft on Mugabe. Thus, it is expedient to expand the mediation team to include a representative from the African Union.

The ZANU (PF) regime has been a priority for South African diplomacy since the onset of Zimbabwe's crisis in February 2000 when Mugabe and his clique started to appropriate commercial farms and parcelling them to themselves, army commanders and police commissioners, judges and senior civil servants. Thabo Mbeki was later appointed mediator in March 2007 by SADC heads of state, an assignment he still fosters.

Although the 11th African Union summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt was convened to address the union's millennium development goals on water and sanitation, Zimbabwe became the focus of the two-day summit. In her opening speech, Asha-Rose Migiro, the UN Deputy Secretary-General, told the African leaders that they had reached a "moment of truth".

"Only dialogue between the Zimbabwean parties, supported by the African Union and other regional actors, can restore peace and stability to the country," she said. That call for discussions was echoed in South Africa, the main regional power broker. Its Foreign Ministry urged Mugabe and Tsvangirai, to "enter into negotiations which will lead to the formation of a transitional government that can extricate Zimbabwe from its current political challenges".

Many African leaders have previously appeared over-awed by Mugabe, long seen as a liberation hero. But the conduct of the run-off presidential election provoked unprecedented criticism from within Africa. Several West African nations were pushing for a strong statement condemning the conduct of the run-off election, but a number of other countries were resisting. Some of the summit leaders favour a power-sharing deal modelled on one that ended a bloody post-election crisis in Kenya this year.

There remains strong resistance among many of Robert Mugabe's African Union peers to any strong action against him. But diplomats say there appears to be a new willingness among African leaders to break with their long tradition of not criticizing another member of the club. Some of those diplomatic officials say they can trace the change to a summit-eve comment made by Africa's elder statesman, Nelson Mandela. As he turned 90-years-old during the past week, Mandela spoke of a ‘tragic failure of leadership in Zimbabwe'.

Both Mugabe and Tsvangirai say they are ready for African-sponsored talks although the issue of who would lead a unity government remains a possibly insuperable obstacle. Tsvangirai won the first round of elections on March 29 where he got 47.9% against Mugabe's 43.2% but fell short of the 51% needed for outright victory. He said that result should be the basis for negotiating a transition.

There have been calls on the AU to send in peacekeepers, but that is unlikely, given the difficulties the continental body already is having with its stalled peacekeeping mission, undertaken jointly with the UN, to Sudan's Darfur. AU peacekeepers also are struggling in Somalia where Ethiopia is taking a leading role.

Meanwhile, the group of 10 Elders that includes four Nobel Peace Prize winners - former US President Jimmy Carter, former South African archbishop Desmond Tutu, former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Bangladeshi banker and economist Muhammad Yunus called on the AU to clearly state that the results of the June 27 elections in Zimbabwe are illegitimate saying, "The crisis in Zimbabwe affects all Africans. And the fate of all Zimbabweans is on our conscience. The African Union has a commitment to good governance, justice, respect for human rights and the rule of law."

It was not unexpected that at the end of the two-day summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, AU leaders approved a resolution calling for the "creation of a government of national unity" in Zimbabwe. It also encouraged both sides to live up to pledges to start dialogue to promote stability. It remains to be seen how much muscle African leaders intend to apply to enforce the resolution. They have faced growing pressure to take a stand against Zimbabwe's president.

Although the resolution fell short of the tougher statement wanted by some African countries, it was an unprecedented rebuff to Mugabe, previously feted as a liberation hero. In the strongest public statement from one of Zimbabwe's neighbours since he was sworn in on June 29, Botswana called for Mugabe to be barred from the AU and the southern African regional body, SADC.

"In our considered view, it therefore follows that the representatives of the current government in Zimbabwe should be excluded from attending SADC (Southern African Development Community) and African Union meetings," a text of remarks by Vice-President Mompati Merafhe read. Botswana said Mugabe's participation in African meetings "would give unqualified legitimacy to a process which cannot be considered legitimate".

It is important that African leaders move to the level of action. They should go beyond rhetoric and condemnation and act in a concrete way that would ensure that Mugabe and his coterie of sycophants listen to the AU and the sub-regional SADC grouping.

Speaking from Johannesburg, on her way back home from the AU summit in Egypt, MDC Vice-President, Thokozani Khupe said 40 African leaders supported the MDC victory in the March elections. Khupe was leading a five-member party delegation on a lobbying expedition to the AU summit.

"Everyone is aware that Zimbabwe is burning, that Zimbabwe is on fire and that it is important to save it before it is destroyed completely," Khupe said.

The US has outlined a draft UN Security Council resolution calling for sanctions on Zimbabwe and Italy has recalled its ambassador to the country for consultations. Germany said it had asked a Munich-based firm to stop supplying Zimbabwe with paper used for printing banknotes. Zimbabwe's financial collapse has seen Mugabe's government responding to runaway inflation by printing more and more banknotes, of ever higher denominations.

Diplomatic sources do not expect the UN Security Council to go much further than a nonbinding resolution condemning violence against the political opposition in Zimbabwe. "The Security Council condemns the campaign of violence against the political opposition. The Security Council regrets that the campaign of violence and the restrictions on the political opposition have made it impossible for a free and fair election to take place on 27 June," said the 15-member body in a unanimous statement issued on June 23. South Africa, China and Russia had opposed recognising the March 29 election result and taking any further council action.

The US, European nations and Australia have imposed targeted sanctions on Zimbabwe's leaders, and they may strengthen them, though there are concerns tougher measures and general economic sanctions could hurt ordinary Zimbabweans already struggling with economic collapse. However, there has been little sign of broader economic boycotts or the kind of grass roots campaigns that were used to bring pressure on apartheid-era South Africa.

In the final analysis, violence will not subdue the people's will and determination. Democratic processes have come to stay and nothing will hinder change for a new Zimbabwe. The electorate has the right to change their legislators from time to time if they believe they have performed poorly. In that way, systems and democratic ideas evolve. It is quite inevitable that nothing will stand in the way of seismic changes on issues of governance and demographic power bases, resulting in a new political power structure and status quo.