April 4, 2008.

Democratic Processes Finally Underway

It has taken twenty-eight painful years to reach this point. Right from September 12, 1890 when the British Pioneer Column occupied the country that became Zimbabwe on April 18, 1980, the people of Zimbabwe have never known democracy. Mugabe claims that he established democracy at independence when the nationalist forces defeated the British colonial power. On the contrary, history has it that at independence, Mugabe retained almost all the colonial laws that incarcerated us in detention camps and prisons. This included such notorious laws as the Law and Order (Maintenance) Act that locked Robert Mugabe himself in prison from 1964 to 1975.

When Mugabe was challenged by the Supreme Court to repeal LOMA in 1994, he devised the Public Order Security Act (POSA) which was finally enacted in 2002. Not only that, he also legislated Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) during the same year. The much-criticised NGOs Bill smoothly sailed through Parliament on December 9, 2004. Then there are other laws such as the Broadcasting Services Act, the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act, Interception of Communications Act and the Political Parties Finance Act.

These laws create a minefield for human rights defenders. They have been used effectively to shrink the democratic space in which human rights defenders operate against the background of numerous arbitrary arrests and detentions of activists.

Despite these draconian laws which muzzle the media and prohibit opposition meetings without permission from the police, the opposition captured 109 seats against ZANU (PF)'s 97 seats, plus one independent, in the parliamentary elections on March 29, 2008.

It must be remembered that this was really a giant-killing exercise. These elections had already been rigged right from the word go. The voters' role was full of ghost voters. In politics, when political scientists speak of ghost voters, they don't just mean deceased persons like the former Minister of Justice and Law and Order, Desmond "Des" Lardner-Burke, who terrorised nationalists during the 1960s and died more than twenty-years ago but still appears as a voter in the Mt Pleasant constituency. They are also talking of faceless voters who appear on the voters' role.

It was widely reported in the media that at one address, there were a whole 8,000 registered voters; and 75 persons were alleged to have been registered at one marked plot without any building. It emerged that ZANU (PF) was moving people from rural areas to register as urban voters to strengthen its chances of wrestling urban constituencies from the opposition. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), whose mandate is to promote free and fair elections, accused the ruling ZANU (PF) party of "busing" its supporters from its rural strongholds to beef up its thin urban voter base.

During the registration of voters for the harmonised presidential and parliamentary elections, it emerged that a housing co-operative (Ernest Kadungure Housing Co-op) in Hatcliffe was allocating stands. ZANU (PF) supporters were then being issued with letters as proof of residence. When the ZESN investigated the incident, it was discovered that there was neither construction nor people living at these stands. What this means is people from outside the Harare North constituency were being registered.

This was not an isolated incident because this type of electoral fraud was taking place in other major towns and cities in the country.

The real joy of raising electoral ghosts is that there are no ghost busters: there is no system for checking the accuracy of the voters' role register. The best that can be done is for candidates to examine the voters' register just before an election. However, when opposition candidates tried to examine the voters' register, they were hindered by ZEC officials. They only got the register after appealing to the High Court after the Electoral Court had refused to adjudicate on electoral discrepancies brought forward by the opposition. This appeared quite deliberate because the voters' register was handed over just a week before polling day which, of course, was too late to adjust any discrepancies.

Another very common way of rigging an election is through the delimitation of constituencies. In Zimbabwe, the people who serve on the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission are appointed by Robert Mugabe, directly and indirectly and report to him. There are military officers; some are public servants vulnerable to all sorts of political pressures. Others are simply ruling party functionaries. When the ZEC delineated the boundaries of the 210 parliamentary constituencies and the 60 constituencies for the senate, it was accused of gerrymandering. The creation of new parliamentary seats, even though the present parliament space cannot accommodate so many MPs, was meant to boost the ZANU (PF) majority. This enabled the ruling party to create more constituencies in areas ZANU (PF) considers politically safe.

Coupled with well-documented violence and intimidation, the forced exclusion of the opposition polling agents from the majority of rural polling stations made it easy for the ruling party to rig the results in the given constituencies. ZANU (PF)'s electoral deceit worked only where there was nobody to expose it. In spite of this handicap, the opposition managed to capture some seats in ZANU (PF)'s strongholds including Robert Mugabe's backyard of Zvimba.

Furthermore, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) never got a chance to put forward its manifesto on the public TV nor in the print media. What the opposition party got were insults and denigration from the state sponsored journalists and outgoing ministers. Mugabe was particularly at his best, even claiming that he was going to get a landslide victory. Now he has to eat his humble pie.

The MDC rollercoaster is in full swing! The chief architect of the notorious laws that go against democratic processes and violate human rights, Minister of Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs, Patrick Chinamasa, was humiliated by MDC's John Nyamande in Makoni Central. Farm Mechanisation Minister and Robert Mugabe's private farm manager, Joseph Made, was eliminated in Makoni West. Made, known for his weird crop forecasting methods during his days as Agriculture Minister, lost to Webber Chinyadza of the MDC. Oppah Muchinguri, Women's Affairs and Gender Minister and head of the ZANU (PF) women's league, lost in Mutasa Central to Lovelace Johns of the MDC - all these considered safe ZANU (PF) seats going into the election.

Energy Minister Mike Nyambuya could not produce enough power to deflect MDC's Anthony Chimhini in Mutasa North; Mines Minister Amos Midzi was routed out of Epworth by Elias Jembere of the MDC; veteran Chen Chimutengwende, the Minister of Public and Interactive Affairs, was sent packing from Mazowe Central (a seat he had held since 1980) by Murangai Mathais. And voters delivered another blow when they drove Transport Minister, Chris Mushowe, out of Mutare West, replacing him with Shuah Mudiwa of the MDC.

Added to ZANU (PF)'s Manicaland casualty list was war veterans' leader, Joseph Chinotimba, who lost to Naison Nemadziva in Buhera South. In Masvingo, another region in which ZANU (PF) lost its stranglehold, Shuvai Mahofa, one of the ruling party's longest serving legislators, lost to University of Zimbabwe professor and senior Tsvangirai advisor, Elphas Mukonoweshuro.

In Bulawayo, the Tsvangirai camp swept the available 12 seats. A 13th seat was not contested for, postponing the misery for Information and Publicity Minister, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu. A by-election will be held in Pelandaba-Mpopoma after the death, on the eve of elections, of sitting MDC Member of Parliament Milton Gwetu.

The ZANU (PF) bigwigs who fell on March 29 will pile up along with other big names whose careers were already ended at ZANU (PF)'s primary elections in February. Among these are Dzikamai Mavhaire, Agriculture Minister, Rugare Gumbo, Education Minister, Aeneas Chigwedere and Finance Minister, Samuel Mumbengegwi. Chigwedere has since taken over the Mubayiwa headmanship.

The Arthur Mutambara camp of the MDC faced political oblivion after the bulk of its supreme national executive council members lost to Morgan Tsvangirai's faction. Results show the annihilation by the Tsvangirai faction in nine of the country's 10 political provinces, giving credence to the long-held view that other than splitting the MDC vote in some areas, the Mutambara faction had no grassroots support. Tsvangirai can now lay full claim to Bulawayo and the other Matabeleland provinces, for long considered strongholds for the Mutambara faction after the majority of politicians from the region split from Tsvangirai in October 2005.

Tsvangirai's faction won all 12 of the contested lower house seats in Bulawayo and five of the six contested senatorial seats. David Coltart, Mutambara's secretary for legal affairs, won the only senatorial seat in Bulawayo when he narrowly beat Joubert Mangena in the Khumalo senatorial constituency.

Mutambara was soundly trounced in the Zengeza West constituency by trade unionist Collin Gwiyo. In Nkulumane, Tsvangirai's Youth Assembly chairman, Thamsanqa Mahlangu, walloped Mutambara's deputy, Gibson Sibanda, founding vice president of the MDC, effectively relegating the veteran trade unionist to the dustbins of opposition politics. National Treasurer Fletcher Dulini-Ncube lost in Magwegwe to former Associated Newspapers of Zimbabwe chief executive, Samuel Sipepa Nkomo, while the party's national director of elections and former spokesman, Paul Themba Nyathi, lost to Cornelius Dube.

Bulawayo executive mayor, Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube, narrowly lost to Dorcas Sibanda. In what was dubbed the battle of the giants in Makokoba, Tsvangirai's deputy president, Thokozani Khupe, beat Mutambara's secretary-general, a man considered the brain behind the October split, Welshman Ncube. Ncube's deputy, Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga was not spared the embarrassment. She lost heavily in Highfields West against Tsvangirai's Simon Hove.

Mutambara faction spokesman, Gabriel Chaibva, fared badly in his adopted constituency of Sunningdale. Tsvangirai's youthful Marvelous Khumalo sent Mutambara's secretary for defence Job Sikhala packing in St. Mary's constituency. Esaph Mdlongwa, Mutambara's national organising secretary, lost to Tsvangirai's Reggie Moyo. Trudy Stevenson, the vociferous faction's secretary for research, fell to businessman Jameson Timba in Mount Pleasant.

Edwin Mushoriwa, Mutambara's outgoing legislator in Dzivarasekwa, just managed 963 votes against 5 210 polled by Evelyin Masaiti of the Tsvangirai camp. Eddie Cross, Tsvangirai's economic advisor, beat Mutambara's Jethro Mpofu in Bulawayo South, while in Bulawayo East, veteran trade unionist Thabitha Khumalo beat Yasmin Tofu.

Political analysts said the Mutambara MDC camp failed to read the political landscape in the country hence the drubbing of almost the entire national executive council, including its leader, academician and former student leader, Arthur Mutambara. It is most unlikely they would forge an alliance with ZANU (PF). It is advisable for them to form a parliamentary alliance with Tsvangirai's MDC.

In the cliff-hanger presidential election, Robert Mugabe was defeated by MDC President, Morgan Tsvangirai, who (according to unofficial figures) got 50.3% of the votes cast against Mugabe's 42.9% with Simba Makoni getting 6.8%. Political commentators say there are clear indications that Mugabe had lost the election and that the ZEC was cushioning the defeat by not rushing to release the results. This has prompted the MDC to make an application in the High Court to compel the ZEC to announce the results of the presidential poll.

The voter enthusiasm proved that repression, restrictive legislation like POSA and AIPPA and the deployment of security forces to quell street demonstrations are no longer a viable and sustainable approach. It appears there is not much the security agencies can do to dampen the appetite for democracy of the opposition and civil society. The perception within the international community and among an increasing number within Mugabe's own ruling ZANU (PF) party was that the President himself had become a stumbling block to Zimbabwe's economic and political progress. Simba Makoni's challenge to Mugabe's presidency is a point in question.

The ZANU (PF) government and its free spending coupled by incoherent agro-economic policies was the single biggest cause of the country's poor economic performance. Instead of the government curbing its reckless spending (most of it to buy political patronage), it branded those urging it to embrace fiscal discipline and austerity as enemies of the people.

The MDC must now consolidate the democratic process by fulfilling its election manifesto. One of the items on the priority list is the establishment of a government of national unity that includes other stakeholders. Zimbabwe is endowed with democratic forces, including some ZANU (PF) members. These must swiftly work on a home-grown constitution to replace the mutilated Lancaster House Constitution. Then put the draft constitution to a referendum and if approved by the majority of the people of Zimbabwe, hold new democratic elections where international observers are allowed to witness the plebiscite.

The government that now takes over from the discredited ZANU (PF) administration should set the stage for meaningful reconstruction and the restoration of livelihoods with the help of the UN and other partners. Zimbabwe urgently requires intervention to the crisis in the form of shelter, water, sanitation, food and healthcare. The constant chest beating about Zimbabwe's determination never to be "a colony again" did not make much sense. The country may not be a colony again in the literal and original sense of the word but it was definitely now beholden to new "masters" in more complex and costly ways.

Removal of price controls would ease shortages and restore private sector confidence. There is a need for urgent reduction of the cabinet and public sector. Civil servants now constitute more than 50% of the workforce in the country. The government's wage bill is an astounding 20% of GDP.

In a vain attempt to hold onto power at any cost, the ZANU (PF) government continued to spend money it did not have, funded by running the printing press, while also borrowing from the banks. But Zimbabwe simply cannot go on printing money and ignoring the consequences. All budgets should be reviewed against current and projected income and adjusted where required. Strict limits should be imposed on the budget deficit by way of fiscal discipline and tight budgetary controls. All parties to the process must observe these.

There is a need for an orderly land-reform programme in line with international norms where the rule of law applies. Land was parcelled out to ZANU (PF) high ranking officials and cronies, some of who possess more than one farm. The land acquired by these Mugabe supporters is now derelict and has left about four million of the 12 million inhabitants close to starvation and depending on international food handouts.

The country has 20,000-odd destitute people arrested for gold panning after they lost jobs on once-productive farms. There are also about 700,000 people whose ramshackle market stalls and homes were destroyed in Mugabe's Operation Murambatsvina (Drive Out Filth) in 2005. They have all been waiting for a new democratic dispensation.

Dealing with the thievery of Mugabe's gang will be complicated. There is a need to establish an independent anti-corruption commission which should start a cleanup of both the public and private sectors. Because of corruption in the corridors of power, it has been impossible to come up with proper instruments to curb corruption. In a vain attempt to be seen to be doing something about the scourge, the ZANU (PF) government even created a ministry responsible for corruption. The trouble is those who are supposed to fight corruption are themselves so steeped in sleaze they did not know where to start. Amnesty and pecuniary rewards should be offered to encourage whistleblowers to come forward.

With the defeat of ZANU (PF), Zimbabwe has entered a period of national healing and integration that should result in the abrogation of repressive laws such as POSA and AIPPA. At the same time, there is need for tolerance of diversity, good governance and economic development. Authoritarianism is a pathology against which humankind has a tendency to always rebel. Contemporary history has a long list of tyrants that succumbed to democratic forces: Adolf Hitler, Ferdinand Marcos, Emperor Jean Bokassa, Nicolae Ceausescu, Haile Miriam Mengistu, Samuel Doe, Mobutu Seseseko, Slobodan Milosevich, Charles Taylor, etcetera.

Although democratic processes may take time to materialise, as opposed to a revolution, it is intrusive the people have now spoken - the question of who the people want to run the affairs of the country has been put to rest once and for all; at least until properly conducted democratic elections are held.

At this point in time, it looks democratic processes are finally underway in Zimbabwe. If Mugabe insists on a run-off, this will have a major political and economic impact. Observers predict violence in campaigning for the run-off, which would be in contrast to a largely peaceful campaign for the 29th March polls. The government is expected to clamp down on manufacturers and retailers in a second price blitz in an effort to appease a restive population.

Even before the run-off, it is safe to say the die is cast and history has been made. Zimbabweans have unanimously condemned Robert Mugabe and his cronies to the dumping heap of history. Some of his dead-wood ministers were even rejected by their own ZAU (PF) party in the primaries.

Morgan Tsvangirai's fortunes would be buoyed by promises of support from Simba Makoni (the independent presidential candidate who polled 6.8%), the Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC and other independent civic groups. Zimbabweans in all walks of life want change. The economic crisis - with inflation reported at over 165,000% - the main issue in the elections, is seen deepening sharply in campaigning for the new presidential run-off.

Economic analysts predict increased money printing to fund both the second round of voting and the ruling party's campaign and that would mean a major parallel market movement and another jump in inflation.

Allowing intransigence and possible post-election violence to erupt would be the greatest crime Robert Mugabe would have visited on the people of Zimbabwe. This would wipe out all his achievements as a revolutionary and founding father of Zimbabwe. The Shona say,

"Chisingaperi chinoshura." In other words, all good things come to an end; one must learn to let go. There is no shame in knowing just when to bow out.

Zimbabwe's crisis has caused great suffering, poverty and forced millions to flee, with official figures suggesting that about 3.4 million people - a quarter of the population - is living abroad.

Fortunately, Zimbabwe has the human resource base on which to rebuild upon an eroded socio-political foundation. With co-operation from the international community, there is a fair chance that the battered nation's vital sectors of the economy can be resuscitated.

Even if Mugabe were to win the run-off by hook or by crook, he is confronted by a country in total economic meltdown. Throughout history, hyperinflation means regime change. Mugabe is in an end game.