April 26, 2008.

MUGABE SHOOTS HIMSELF IN THE FOOT

So far, the 84-year-old has clung doggedly to office, as the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission sits on the results of the simultaneous presidential election. But with almost four weeks now gone since polling, excuses for the delay are wearing thin, while the international spotlight on a partial recount has made the possibility of fixing the outcome that bit harder.

The figures below show the contested unpublished results. The ZEC Count: Morgan Tsvangirai -- 51.7%; Robert Mugabe -- 43.3%; Simba Makoni -- 4.9%; Langton Tawungana -- 0.1%. MDC Count: Morgan Tsvangirai -- 50.3%; Robert Mugabe -- 43.0%: Simba Makoni -- 6.5%: Langton Tawungana -- 0.2%. According to official Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) figures leaked from the Police General Headquarters -- as shown in ZEC-Count -- Morgan Tsvangirai achieved an outright victory over Robert Mugabe. But impeccable security sources said these official results would never see the light of day, and had already been "classified".

"There has been so much manipulation of figures and ballot boxes were secretly stored at the old Reserve Bank Building before the ongoing recount in 23 constituencies," the security source said.

The recount has been called in a desperate bid to overturn MDC's parliamentary majority and underestimate Tsvangirai's presidential poll tally so that it is shy of the 50% needed to assume the presidency.

However, a vote recount in 23 constituencies that began on April 19 - itself against the electoral law - has revealed even wider margins in certain constituencies than in the original counts. The Electoral Law stipulates that a recount can only be undertaken 48 hours after casting of votes. The ZEC sources also revealed that the original results from the presidential poll gave MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai a clear victory over Robert Mugabe. The recount is believed to be showing very much the same result, in some cases bigger wins for the MDC than the original results. And this is why the ZEC is delaying the announcement, again.

It is said this has sent alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power again as frightened authorities desperately try to reverse initial results to regain control of parliament and limit damage in Mugabe's heavy crash. The recount has become a smokescreen and an exercise in futility.

There was no pattern of systematic fraud as claimed by ZANU (PF). Even going by official documents it seems there were computation mistakes and probably mischievous manipulation for all the candidates by misguided electoral officers. For example, at Mashayapokuvaka polling station in Goromonzi West retained by ZANU (PF) in the recount, Simba Makoni's votes were inflated by 127 ballots, Mugabe got 54 votes more than he deserved, while Tsvangirai was robbed of 189 votes. Thus, authorities show in their documents the recounts would not change anything except the statistical errors that have no bearing on the results.

The ransacking of offices of the MDC at Harvest House and the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) on April 25 was a futile exercise that appeared to be aimed at confiscating all documents relating to the March 29 elections. At both locations the police focus appeared to be documents and information in computers about the elections. The only problem is that these results were displayed at polling stations after polling day and are floating everywhere in the cyberspace.

The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) is a coalition of non-governmental organisations formed to co-ordinate activities pertaining to elections. The major focus of the network is to promote democratic processes in general and free and fair elections in particular.

This and the recount serve to undermine Robert Mugabe's hitherto boisterous posture that he would never be involved in any scheme designed to defeat the will of the people. It can be recalled that on Election Day he said his ‘conscience would not allow him to accept a situation where he knew his party was cheating'. Mugabe is now in self-denial because he had not counted on the people of Zimbabwe being able to express themselves so eloquently against the politics of the past. He now finds refuge in schemes that undermine the fundamental principles of the 1970s war of liberation.

A South African member of the SADC observer team said the recount in a number of constituencies in Zimbabwe was futile because ballot boxes had been tampered with. "Of particular concern was the evidence of ballot box tampering that I witnessed personally, which points to a concerted effort to rig the election results in order to bring about a Mugabe 'victory'," Dianne Kohler-Barnard said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the electoral crisis remains in international headlines. Heads of state, politicians, human rights campaigners, church and civil society organisations, exiled Zimbabweans, students and thousands more groups and concerned individuals throughout the world have been coming out in protest at the refusal of Robert Mugabe to accept defeat and release his military stranglehold on Zimbabwe. Hundreds of thousands of people all over the world have been signing petitions, taking to the streets for demonstrations and lobbying their leaders to do what they can to end the crisis in Zimbabwe.

The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, added his voice to those calling for an immediate release of results. On April 22, Ban is quoted as saying, "I urge the Zimbabwean authorities and the election commission to release the results as soon as possible."

South African ruling party leader Jacob Zuma said on April 22 that the situation in Zimbabwe was not acceptable and urged African leaders to intervene, as more of southern Africa's leading political leaders began to show signs they were getting fed up with Mugabe's government.

"It's not acceptable. It's not helping the Zimbabwean people who have gone out to . . . elect the kind of party and presidential candidate they want, exercising their constitutional right," Zuma told the press in Germany where he was on tour.

The president of the ruling African National Congress went on to emphasise that, "The electoral commission must issue the results because it is actually destroying its own credibility as an institution that is supposed to be neutral." Jacob Zuma spoke barely 24 hours after Zambia, which chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC), urged regional states to bar a Chinese ship carrying weapons for Mugabe's government from docking at their ports, saying the weapons could deepen Zimbabwe's election crisis.

On the same day, Australian Foreign Minister, Stephen Smith, said Robert Mugabe is trying to steal the election and described the recount of ballots as "a sham". Speaking at a news conference, Smith urged Zimbabwe's neighbours and the international community to maintain pressure on the Mugabe regime to ensure the election was not stolen through a corrupted recount or by violent means.

In the UK, Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, issued a written statement to the House of Commons on April 21 urging African countries to take a stand against Mugabe's blatant attempts to rig the elections. Miliband went further to warn that the three-week delay posed "a threat to democracy" on the continent.

Speaking in Nairobi on April 19, former United Nations Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, urged African leaders to intervene urgently. "The question that has been posed is where are the Africans? Where are the leaders of the countries in the region, what are they doing, how can they help the situation? It is a serious crisis with impact beyond Zimbabwe."

The Chinese ship, known as An Yue Jiang fled from South Africa's port of Durban after a High Court judge directed that the ship be offloaded but refused to allow the weapons to be transported across South Africa to Zimbabwe. Mozambique and Angola said they will not allow the ship to dock at their ports, in an unprecedented move by regional governments that have in the past stood by Mugabe's administration, shielding it from censure by the international community.

Correspondence between the Zimbabwean government and Poly Technologies shows that the Chinese firm was awarded the contract to supply three million rounds of AK-47 ammunition, 1,500 rocket-propelled grenades and 3,000 mortar rounds and mortar tubes. The documents show part of the consignment is valued at US$1.27 million (R10 million). The Zimbabwe Defence Forces had already paid clearance fees to South African authorities, which cannot be recovered now even though the arms will no longer go through South Africa.

The ZANU (PF) government has no moral justification for forking out large sums of money to buy arms when the country is not at war and when its people are starving due to poor harvests and a haphazard land-reform programme. Robert Mugabe and his clique could have presented a solid moral argument had they ransacked the fiscus to avert hunger by importing staple grains and allocating the little foreign currency available to agricultural input manufacturers ahead of the 2008/09 farming season.

Does it ever bother the powers-that-be that the country continues to spend money on military hardware when there are no essential drugs in hospitals and clinics? The country's education system is on its deathbed due to shortages of textbooks and other teaching materials and the same applies for the agricultural sector, which cannot import vaccines for cattle.

This arms fiasco has also exposed the extent to which the government has destroyed Zimbabwean industries because ordinarily the armaments could have been sourced from the Zimbabwe Defence Industries (ZDI), which is now surviving on non-core operations after years of under capitalisation. Instead of capacitating struggling local companies, the ZANU (PF) government imports the basic arms to preserve jobs in Shenzhen, China, allowing the scourge of retrenchments and company closures spawned by its disastrous policies to continue locally. And as a result, ZDI, which has suffered a dual status of being both a private company and a state enterprise, is slowly dying.

As it appears, large sums of foreign currency were paid to a Chinese arms dealer. Poly Technologies is an arms trader owned by a commercial subsidiary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the Chinese defence force. The Zimbabwe deal is not the first controversy to hit Poly Technologies. The company has a 1996 indictment in the USA after it tried to ship 2,000 AK-47s into the United States. Western critics have also targeted the company for allegedly selling arms to so-called "rogue states". It has been criticised for allegedly selling cruise missiles to Iran, and for reportedly trading weapons for heroin in Myanmar.

The timing of this arms shipment was curious given the instability in Zimbabwe, where tensions are high over the current government's refusal to release the results from last month's presidential elections. The delay in releasing the results of the vote sparked violence and a government crackdown on opposition members.

As the Chinese arms cargo sparked an international outcry, residents of the eastern border city of Mutare were shocked by the spectacle of uniformed Chinese soldiers patrolling the city centre along with Zimbabwean security forces on April 15. About ten Chinese soldiers all carrying revolvers, were part of a heavy security deployment in the city centre. While the situation in the city was generally calm, as residents went about their normal business despite the call by the opposition to stage a strike, policemen, all armed with AK-47 rifles, teargas canisters and baton sticks and some driving around in water canons, patrolled the poorer residential areas of the city.

It was reported that the Chinese soldiers, along with about 70 Zimbabwean senior army officers were booked in the Holiday Inn, in the city centre.

Even as the Zimbabwe crisis worsens, an extraordinary solidarity movement has taken hold across Southern Africa- sparked by a South African dock workers' union that refused to unload the Chinese shipment of Zimbabwe-bound lethal weapons. Their refusal to facilitate Zimbabwe's crackdown has ignited a wildfire that is spreading across the continent. By denying the ship permission to dock at their harbours, South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Namibia and Angola are sending a loud message that all is not well in Zimbabwe.

Reports have already indicated that Poly Technologies was recalling the ship, buckling to pressure. The stance taken by SADC and the civic movement in the region shows that patience is running thin against Harare and that the region would like to avoid a repeat of the Kenyan scenario where more than 1,200 people were killed while over 350,000 others were displaced since the disputed elections of December 2007.

Meanwhile, two new reports released by human rights groups say there has been a sharp increase in political violence in Zimbabwe since the disputed March 29 poll. The reports, one by the Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) and the other by a group of doctors, say the government is overwhelmingly responsible.

The ZPP report says there was a sharp rise in violence in the two provinces of Mashonaland East and Mashonaland West. The report contains worrisome details of torture camps and heavy assaults by war veterans, of the police being ordered to turn a blind eye, of houses burnt down and of victims being denied medical assistance.

"ZPP received a worrisome report last week of the existence of torture bases in Mutoko and Mudzi constituencies in Mashonaland East Province," says the report. "War veterans have unleashed terror in Mashonaland East with the assistance of the ruling ZANU (PF) party. War veterans, youths, and war collaborators are beating and torturing suspected opposition party supporters and local observers of the harmonised elections, like ZESN."

The report lists 68 cases of torture and 22 kidnappings during the period from March 29 in Mutoko South and North, Mudzi, Murehwa North, Marondera East and Mashonaland West.

The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights says politically motivated violence in Zimbabwe has become widespread and is increasing on a daily basis. It says ZANU (PF) was responsible for all the cases it studied and the violence was carried out in a way that clearly indicated planning and strategy.

"Since the election on March 29th, up to the end of April 14th, members of the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR) have seen and treated 157 cases of injury resulting from organised violence and torture," the report says. "As of midday today April 15th, 30 of these patients remain in hospital."

ZADHR said one third of the patients were women, including a 15-year old girl who was abducted with her mother from her home, made to lie face down and thrashed on her buttocks. Her mother, who is pregnant, was similarly beaten, says the report. Both mother and daughter were admitted to hospital.

The doctors reported that the worst cases of injuries were recorded in Manicaland, Mashonaland East and West, and Masvingo. The doctors said the commonest injury observed was extensive soft tissue injury of the buttocks. The doctors also report that nine patients sustained fractures of the arms or the hands.

There was a further 81 cases of organised violence and torture which have been seen and treated by members of this Association in the three days to end of Monday April 21st 2008. "Fourteen (17%) of these 81 patients were women. They include a 7 year old girl who suffered a fracture of her right radius and ulna on falling down while running after her father who was being chased by members of the security forces, and a 10 year old boy with a probable dislocation of the right elbow resulting from being kicked by a soldier who was trying to kick someone else. One 47 year old woman reported being sexually assaulted," a ZADHR statement said.

The MDC reported that 10 of its members have been murdered and scores others injured since the March polls. In addition, at least 3,000 people have been displaced, after their homes were burnt down.

On April 20, Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused ZANU (PF) of establishing a network of torture camps in a campaign against MDC supporters. The campaign of violence, called Operation Makavhoterapapi (Where did you put your cross)? by ZANU (PF) officials, has spread across regions where opposition support surged in the election.

HRW said it had collected evidence from victims and witnesses of illegal detention centres in Mutoko, Mudzi and Bikita "to round up and instil fear in suspected political opponents". Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch, said: "ZANU (PF) members are setting up torture camps to systematically target, beat and torture people suspected of having voted for the MDC. Several individuals told HRW they had been held in these camps for up to three days and interrogated about MDC leaders, MDC funding and the location of other MDC supporters."

It is not a secret that, in ZANU (PF)'s view, the MDC and its supporters are enemies of the State, which explains the war of attrition silently being waged against defenceless activists since the March 29 elections.

Zimbabwe's church leaders warned that rising post-election violence in the country could reach genocide proportions. The leaders of the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops' Conference and the Zimbabwe Council of Churches - the three main representative bodies for Christians in Zimbabwe - called on African leaders and the United Nations to intervene to stop the country sliding into another African killing field.

"We warn the world that if nothing is done to help the people of Zimbabwe from their predicament, we shall soon be witnessing genocide similar to that experienced in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and other hot spots in Africa and elsewhere," the religious leaders said in a joint statement.

"We appeal to the SADC, the African Union and the United Nations to work towards arresting the deteriorating political and security situation in Zimbabwe," the statement said.

Diplomatic sources said NGO leaders met SADC observer mission head José Marcos Barrica on April 22 and presented him with chilling evidence of post-election violence, including pictures of opposition supporters with broken limbs. The dossier chronicles deaths, beatings, rapes, maiming and torture of defenceless citizens by soldiers, police and state security agents.

The current crusade against opposition supporters in the provinces of Mashonaland, Masvingo, Midlands and Manicaland is a re-enactment of Operation Gukurahundi. Then Mugabe never forgave the people of Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands for overwhelmingly rejecting him in the 1980 and 1985 elections in favour of Joshua Nkomo, then leader of PF-ZAPU. He dispatched his crack North Korean trained Fifth Brigade under the command of Perence Shiri to exact revenge for his rejection. What followed was untold and unprecedented suffering that Mugabe has refused to apologise for, let alone acknowledge: except to talk of this "moment of madness".

Similarly, Mugabe is now punishing the people that he previously regarded as his bona fide supporters for having also overwhelmingly rejected him in favour of the winner of the March 29 elections, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the MDC. Mugabe has unleashed his whole army and other security machinery against the people for simply having exercised their universal right of electing the person they want as their leader. Mugabe simply does not have the stomach to accept the will of the people and has resorted to what he knows best, violence.

It is pertinent to point out that Mugabe has been emboldened by the lack of action that the world took against him after his first genocide actions in Matabeleland and parts of the Midlands. That there are other people such as the lamentable Thabo Mbeki of South Africa that are prepared to endorse his dastardly behaviour and the treatment of people who did not vote for him, has spurred him to escalate the violence against innocent civilians.

The regime has become more arrogant after Mbeki's infamous statement about there being no crisis in Zimbabwe. It was an endorsement that the cornered Mugabe regime was desperately seeking and waiting for with bated breath. Given that it was issued by none other than Thabo Mbeki, referred to variously as the West's point man on Zimbabwe, meant that Mugabe can do as he pleases. Mbeki has proved time and again that he is averse to a new dispensation taking over in Zimbabwe.

It can be observed that the damage that Mugabe has caused is not just the stealing of an election but the manipulation of the Zimbabwe Constitution that makes the separation-of-powers doctrine a joke. Clearly, under Robert Mugabe the judiciary is incapable of being independent so is the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. The way the High Court handled MDC petitions starting with the petition to force the ZEC to announce the presidential results and then to block recounting of votes, left a lot to be admired. There were obvious delaying tactics meant to frustrate and undermine the legal process.

Perhaps the worst dimension of this is a suborned judiciary unwilling to uphold rights enshrined in the Constitution. Law historians will find striking similarities and continuities between Rhodesia and Zimbabwe in respect of the political leadership's relationship and attitude towards the law and legality wherein the law is seen and consistently used as a tool of political and social repression and also frequently manipulated to grant wide discretionary powers to Executive organs like the ZEC.

Under the doctrine of the separation of powers, the judiciary should exercise the independence and responsibility to interpret the law with no bias. In this case, the judiciary should have acted as a competent administrator to ensure compliance with the electoral law. By blocking the publication of the presidential elections and by allowing the recounting of ballots 21 days down the line, High Court judges were being manipulated by the Executive and ZANU (PF) politicians.

The bench is blatantly pro-ZANU (PF); a bench and a legal system that allows the same person to defend ZEC and ZANU (PF) in court as done by George Chikumbirike who represented both ZEC and ZANU (PF) in the current electoral disputes. This smacks of gross conflict of interest. George Chikumbirike knew which side of his bread is buttered when he stated before Justice Tendai Uchena that, "It would be dangerous in my view to give an order (for ZEC to release results) because it might not be complied with ... because of outside exigencies which the party (ZEC) will be unable to control."

One of the fundamental principles of the rule of law is that no one can be a judge unto his own cause and yet we find a strange occurrence in Zimbabwe where the current regime has taken the law into its own hands with impunity. The election results are now being reviewed by the same party that only a few weeks ago announced them with no involvement of the courts.

On countless occasions, Robert Mugabe has used the Presidential Powers (Temporary Measures) Act to thwart the Judiciary and to declare decrees even when the situation did not warrant such action by the Executive. The current travesty of a dissolved Cabinet whose defeated ministers were secretly sworn into office is a point in question. The defeated former ministers have now unconstitutionally smuggled themselves back into office.

It is outrageous and unprecedented to observe Mugabe's fraudulent manipulation of his own electoral laws in an effort to defeat the democratic processes currently under way in Zimbabwe. In an apparent acceptance of his limited room for manoeuvre, state media has even floated the possibility of a unity government with ZANU (PF) and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change - albeit headed by Mugabe. Notwithstanding the fact that all odds are against Mugabe!

Zimbabwe desperately needs a new beginning and the starting point must be the adoption of a home-grown constitution that will lead to democratic elections with both regional and international observers being invited to the plebiscite.

The effects of the current political impasse will certainly reinforce further economic ruin and social decadence. The ZANU (PF) leadership should rise to the occasion by demonstrating political maturity and tolerance in the national interest and for the sake of prosperity by promoting national unity and political inclusiveness. They need to understand that elections serve the primary purpose of ensuring that there is change of leadership.

This change happens everywhere, be it at the social level in churches, clubs, societies, or even at corporate level. The rationale for this change of leadership being that those who are led are by and large entitled to exercise the right to elect people they believe can articulate their concerns competently and to implement economic policies that improve their standard of living. Zimbabwe faces the grim prospect of perpetuating this vicious circle of 85% unemployment and hyperinflation at more than 165,000% if no political tolerance and maturity is practised.

Meanwhile, cash shortages and queues are back once again - despite the Reserve Bank introducing a Z$50 million denomination note in February - as the dithering over the presidential result shows little sign of ending. In the meantime, the economy continues to flounder, without a leader to take stock of what needs to be done. The price for a loaf of bread has jumped from Z$65 million to Z$100 million, while one egg now costs Z$20 million. These are the consequences of a power vacuum currently prevailing in the southern African country.

At least 80% of the population is living below the poverty datum line and an estimated four million people have fled into Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, the UK, the USA and other Western countries to escape social degradation and political violence. The ZANU (PF) government has done nothing to deal with these crises, which have been worsened by a leader who regards his subjects as enemies to be trampled upon like cockroaches.

National leaders govern without regard to political affiliation and do not govern through coercion. They do not promote hatred among the governed and are there to ensure peace and an enabling environment for people to pursue their endeavours to the best of their abilities. It is unfortunate that the psyche of a small clique of reactionary ZANU (PF) leaders is one of fear, suspicion, and hatred and for this reason they would rather cling on to power at whatever cost. They would rather abandon true leadership principles and tenets of the rule of law to perpetuate a legacy of failure and an aggressive pursuit of power that betrays the guiding principles that sustained the liberation struggle of the 1970s.

It is an affront to democratic principles when those who lose elections swear in the names of their departed that they will "never" relinquish power in favour of those elected by popular will. If this happens, as is presently being witnessed through the conduct of Gushungo and his ZANU (PF) henchmen, who have begun to use controversial means using recounts and violence to retain power, then people begin to witness a clear case of constitutional subversion.

Mugabe is increasingly becoming vulnerable as he is beginning to lose regional diplomatic support over the results hold up and his attempts to retain power through force. He is clearly shooting himself in the foot.

Even in the event of a run-off or re-run, Mugabe is placed in exactly the same situation he sought to avoid via Constitutional Amendment (No.18), and leaving him staring defeat in the face. All the opposition presidential candidates have publicly declared their support for Tsvangirai - and between them they garnered at least five percent of the vote, which will widen Tsvangirai's lead.

Political analysts say Mugabe is better advised to concede now and avoid a run-off because he is set for an embarrassing defeat. But when he finally calls a re-run or run-off marred by broken heads, shattered limbs and bleeding faces, that's the day Zimbabweans will see the Emperor's new clothes.