24 October 2008 - Angling for Powerful Jobs from a Shrinking Pie

Soon after signing a power-sharing accord on September 15, 2008, the three signatories went into the nitty-gritty involved with the distribution of the 31 ministerial portfolios. Under the deal, ZANU (PF) is entitled to 15 ministries with 8 deputies, the larger MDC -- 13 with 6 deputies and Mutambara's MDC -- 3 with one deputy. After almost a month of wrangling, Robert Mugabe unilaterally claimed almost all the most powerful ministries in the government, a move that Tsvangirai rejected as power grabbing.

What this means is that out of the ZANU (PF) ministerial pie made up of 64 ministers, deputy ministers and provincial governors who are also resident ministers (in a setup before the March 29 elections), ZANU (PF) is at most likely to retain only 28. Obviously, the sharing of the shrinking pie creates a problem within the ruling party already divided into two competing camps -- the Emmerson Mnangagwa and Solomon Mujuru camps. There have been fissures within ZANU (PF) as to who should be appointed to the party's share of the ministerial portfolios.

The Vice-Presidents -- Joice Mujuru and Joseph Msika -- are also said to be unhappy because the imminent arrival of Tsvangirai as Prime Minister has overshadowed them. The deal stipulates that executive power would now be shared between Mugabe (chairing the Cabinet) and Tsvangirai (chairing the Council of Ministers), leaving Mujuru and Msika out of the loop.

On October 10, 2008, Mugabe widened the wrangle in the formation of a power-sharing government when he gazetted the crucial ministries of Finance, Foreign Affairs, Defence, Home Affairs, Justice, Information, Local Government, Agriculture and others, which he arbitrarily apportioned to his ZANU (PF) party.

By so doing, Robert Mugabe created a huge problem as many observers believe that ZANU (PF) is not ready for change, that the ongoing negotiations are a stalling tactic to regroup or an attempt to co-opt the opposition.

Power-sharing should be a conflict management device to end conflicts, but at the same time it should be seen as an exercise to put in place democratic processes. In other words, it is meant to reduce the uncertainties involved in a peace process by ensuring participating parties an equitable share of political power and thereby reducing the predicaments of post-accord elections.

Power-sharing governments seem to be the latest way to bring peace to some of Africa's bitter conflicts. Although recent events in contemporary conflict locations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire, and Kosovo have again raised questions regarding the usefulness of power sharing as an instrument of ending civil wars and paving the way for democracy, the case of Kenya shows that peace accords with the explicit purpose of ending conflict through power-sharing continues to be a preferred remedy in internationally mediated conflict resolution.

Those holding power in Zimbabwe think solely in terms of their own interests. The ZANU (PF) elite should develop a sufficient understanding of the processes involved to successfully implement the power-sharing agreement. It is a travesty that ZANU (PF) should demand, as Mugabe did on 10 October, the very ministries in which he openly admitted this is the worst Cabinet he has ever presided over, in terms of the performance of individual ministers. On August 27, 2008, after opening Parliament, Mugabe acknowledged that his ministers had failed him when he said, "This Cabinet that I had was the worst in history. They look at themselves. They are unreliable..."

Problems that are hampering the power-sharing process include the imminent loss of power and privileges that go with it by the ZANU (PF) members in the Politburo and other high-ranking beneficiaries of political patronage. Under the power-sharing conditions, the political loyalists risk ending up as destitute if excluded from government. Some of the people at the forefront campaigning for the powerful ministerial posts were defeated in the parliamentary election of March 29, 2008.

The ruling ZANU (PF) elite have been involved in asset stripping and primitive accumulation of capital. The land grabbing exercise by ZANU (PF) chefs and the so-called war veterans is part of the accumulation project; the acquisition of corporations accused of expropriating foreign currency is part of this capital project. Then there is the externalisation of foreign currency by the ruling elite. Gideon Gono, the Reserve Bank Governor, is an accomplice in this project.

Robert Mugabe and Gono have boasted publicly of the capacity to bust the same sanctions they claim are hurting the people of Zimbabwe. In the process, there have been considerable self-enriching activities because there has been a high level of officially sanctioned leakages of foreign currency and externalization during the process of QFAs. (The QFAs inspections regime is a combination of self-certification with random independent checks thus providing real protection for supplier and customer.)

For example, an estimated US$600,000 for one aid programme was for several months kept in the grip of the central bank and a senior official with one donor organisation in Harare reported that some funds had actually gone missing after arriving at the RBZ. Large sums of donor money, in foreign currency, had also reportedly been taken from the accounts of local aid agencies during the presidential elections.

Zimbabwe has four forex rates in ascending order - interbank; cash; transfer (payment for forex by a Zimdollar bank transfer) and offshore (payment for forex by a Zimdollar bank transfer and the forex supplier settles a foreign invoice directly). Manufacturers and retailers have been pricing their goods and services using the transfer rate. The hyperinflation Zimbabwe experiences has largely been driven by the money supply side for those buying forex on behalf of the RBZ.

And with the economy in a downward spiral, officially one US dollar is worth Z$180. But on the parallel market, it fetches various sums ranging between Z$18,000 and Z$21,000 - and that is for cash, which is in desperately short supply. For bank transfers, the rate is Z$1.5 million to one. The value of these figures is a reflection of the local currency even after 10 zeros were knocked off in August.

The local currency plunged to one-quadrillionth of its value since the beginning of the year 2008.

The RBZ has a unit that gives highly trusted few people bags of cash to go into the street to buy forex. The same unit also transfers Zimbabwe dollars into a few and high trusted people's bank accounts to buy forex by way of transfers.

The ZANU (PF) elite now recognise that they have no solution to the economic crisis and want social peace in order to grow and launder the wealth acquired in the last decade, but cannot do so in the context of a crisis ridden state under siege from the West.

This is what one always observes in dictators: power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely, and those who hold such power will cling to it for dear life no matter the cost, with a sense of hideous entitlement that they can do anything and get away with it.

In that vain, there is no logic for Mugabe to want to hold on to the Ministry of Finance - unless.... This ministry has been the worst performer under Mugabe's reign. A succession of ministers has presided over the collapse of the southern African nation's economy. Matters of economic policy have been relegated to the Governor of the Reserve Bank. Gideon Gono's simple answer to Zimbabwe's dire economic situation has been to print worthless bank notes with reckless abandon.

Once one of Africa's most prosperous nations, Zimbabwe's economic collapse has caused critical food shortages, with nearly half the population depending on international aid, while leaving 85% of the population unemployed.

The official inflation rate surged to 231 million per cent and the World Food Programme at the beginning of October launched an appeal to feed 5 million Zimbabweans. It said more than 80% of the population was surviving on less than US$2.50 a day.

A loaf of bread, which cost Z$500 at the beginning of August, now costs between Z$7,000 and Z$10,000, even when it can be found. Economists say the root cause of the country's hyperinflation is the government's policy of printing ever more money to meet its own needs, which has the effect of destroying the Zimbabwe dollar's value in terms of hard currency, sending the cost of anything imported soaring.

Then there is the controversial Ministry of Home Affairs. Under a succession of ministers, some of clearly dubious credentials, there has been an outright breakdown in law and order in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwe Republic Police has been reduced to a politically partisan institution. The police force has become highly politicised under a Commissioner General who openly declares his own allegiance to Robert Mugabe.

When bashed opposition activists go to police stations, they are put under arrest for reporting political violence: the victim is accused of being the perpetrator of the violence. In other incidents, hundreds of opposition activists are in jail on trumped up charges of inciting violence after being tortured and dumped at police stations.

Generally, there has been a shocking deterioration in the standards of policing.

The voters' roll is now a total shambles. To be issued with a passport has become an expensive luxury. In the face of such crass incompetence, on what basis does ZANU (PF) demand to retain the Ministry of Home Affairs?

The issue of prosecution for those who committed human rights abuses is thought to be at the core of ZANU (PF)'s reluctance to concede any security and justice ministries to the MDC. The MDC has argued that it needs oversight of at least some security agencies to reassure the party's supporters who were the targets of brutal violence during election campaigning earlier this year. Tsvangirai won a first round presidential vote on March 29, but pulled out of the June 27 run-off, saying the violence had left more than 120 of his supporters dead.

ZANU (PF) is said to be fearful that if the opposition gains control of the Ministry of Home Affairs, it will change the disputed voters' roll, which has always been at the centre of dispute during elections. It is alleged that the list contains the names of more than 100,000 dead or otherwise non-existent voters, allegedly included at the instigation of ZANU (PF) as part of an election rigging strategy. A properly administered voters' roll will weaken ZANU (PF) at the next elections.

The voters roll has been Mugabe's centrepiece for stealing elections, according to his critics.

In the area of Foreign Affairs, the government - Mugabe himself in particular - has reduced Zimbabwe to the status of an internationally isolated nation, a pariah state, shunned by most of the international community. Those African nations the government would have Zimbabweans believe support Zimbabwe, do so only out of some form of pan-African nepotism. Even then, none of them ever makes unequivocal public pronouncements in support of Zimbabwe or Mugabe.

Those African leaders who publicly voice their opinion are critical of Mugabe - Raila Odinga of Kenya, the late Levy Mwanawasa of Zambia and Ian Seretse Khama of Botswana. The African Union did not collectively endorse the June run-off which Mugabe claims he won by a landslide. Earlier, Mugabe arbitrarily pulled Zimbabwe out of the Commonwealth. He did not seek the people's mandate nor even bothered to consult Parliament for a vote.

The belligerence that characterises Mugabe's relationship with certain foreign leaders is totally without comparison. Zimbabweans are embarrassed of a leader that does not respect diplomatic etiquette, a leader whose approach to international relations is totally devoid of the decorum expected and required of a statesman.

The Ministry of Information is another portfolio that has totally ruined Zimbabwe's media sector. Zimbabwe Newspapers (1980) Ltd, a once magnificent company, now fails to pay its journalists and other staff. The ministry has caused the closure of at least four independent newspapers in the last eight years.

The Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation is a mouthpiece of ZANU (PF) churning out hate language using taxpayers' money.

The Zimbabwean government uses journalist accreditation laws to prevent most major international media outlets and some local journalists from covering the country's socio-economic developments, especially during elections. Draconian press laws are being used to silence the press in Zimbabwe in the same way the Smith regime did before Zimbabwe gained independence in April 1980.

A month after the signing of the ‘power-sharing agreement' all the media restrictions remain and there is no sign that ZANU (PF) has any interest in changing that situation.

The MDC took over the administration of all urban councils in the country after the local government elections of March 29. Since 60% of the population lives in the urban areas, this means that the majority of the people now live under an MDC controlled administration. The MDC also controls a significant number of the Rural District Councils and in all hold 700 of these posts throughout the country. It is, thus, illogical that ZANU (PF) would want to control the Ministry of Local Government.

Local Government Minister Ignatius Chombo, among other things, presided over Operation Murambatsvina (Drive Out Filth) that rendered homeless up to 700,000 of Zimbabwe's citizens and a further 2.4 million were affected in one way or another when the informal sector was destroyed in June 2005. Its impact, as documented in a scathing UN report, produced a political shock that returned Zimbabwe to the international spotlight and made the quality of its governance almost impossible for its regional neighbours to ignore, however difficult they find it to be overtly critical.

The takeover of water and sewer reticulation services in urban centres by the Zimbabwe National Water Authority was not in the best interests of residents. The Ministry of Local Government and Urban Development forcefully transferred water and sewer management from the city councils to ZINWA in 2007 without consultation with residents thus usurping the councils' borrowing powers and dealing a heavy blow to their revenue base reducing it by 40%.

Ever since it took over, ZINWA has failed to provide clean and adequate water and has failed to repair burst sewer pipes but continued to defraud residents through its bill estimates. This has resulted in residents failing to realize value for their money since ZINWA does not have the financial and technical expertise, let alone the residents` blessing to run urban water and sewer systems. Cholera outbreaks have become a common occurrence in such cities as Harare and Bulawayo.

The ZINWA takeover was unwarranted, unprocedural and has resulted in the untold suffering and deaths of residents and continues to pose a threat to their health. The Ministry of Local Government has continued to disrupt MDC controlled city councils causing the deterioration of service delivery.

Meanwhile, social pessimism and disbelief in dialogue has engulfed ZANU (PF), and has contributed to its resorting to virtual war to solve any problem whether within ZANU (PF) or outside the party. The callousness with which ZANU (PF) carried out its evil plans of evicting millions of poor workers from their homes and razing them to the ground because they were "illegal structures" is a clear example that ZANU (PF) has long forgotten that the liberation struggle was fought by these very same poor people. Then there was the vicious Operation Dzikisa Mitengo that led to the arrest of thousands of business executives and resulted in empty shelves.

While politicians bicker about Zimbabwe's government, half the population - 5.1 million people - faces starvation, two-thirds of children are out of school and state universities have failed to open their doors. Water shortages have led to deadly cholera outbreaks in the main towns of the country, according to aid agencies.

On October 20, the UN said that the death toll as a result of cholera outbreaks since February 2008 stands at an estimated 120 people. The latest recurrence of the water borne infection is proving difficult to contain and has spread from the cities to rural areas. There are now fears that the onset of the rainy season could make the disease endemic, if the authorities fail to address the water and sanitation crisis plaguing the county. As the food shortage continues to take its toll on the lives of ordinary Zimbabweans, cholera victims already weakened from hunger are falling prey to the disease faster than before.

There is a state of collapse of certain systems like sewage reticulation; and refuse collection has mostly ground to a halt. Public amenities such as neighbourhood parks, park benches, swimming pools and libraries have long since collapsed - many of them beyond repair. Traffic lights no longer work; roads are in a permanent state of disrepair.

A toxic combination of under-nutrition and diarrhoea is likely to result in the deaths of thousands of children, and many more are in danger of acute, severe malnutrition. There has been an alarming increase in the number of deaths in recent weeks, as Zimbabweans are beginning to succumb to hunger related diseases, such as kwashiorkor, marasmus and in some cases, pellagra. In hospitals, the country's youngest victims are still dying because of a critical lack of medical supplies and nothing to feed starving patients.

Long and winding queues of helpless Zimbabweans trying to draw cash from banks is one of the apparent and undeniable evidence of the depth that the country's economy has fallen. Thousands of Zimbabweans can be seen waiting for long hours at banks in the country's major cities of Harare, Bulawayo, Gweru, Mutare and Victoria Falls, often going home disappointed, for their own monies they can't get.

In mid-October, the government issued a new 50,000 Zimbabwean dollar bill as the highest denomination and authorised a maximum bank withdrawal of Z$50,000. However, the currency might not be worth more than a piece of paper because the RBZ authorised the use of foreign currencies as legal tender. Shop owners and other suppliers of goods and services openly reject the Zimbabwean dollar in preference for the US dollar, the Euro, the British pound, the South African rand, and the Botswana pula along with currencies from neighbouring countries of Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi.

An average journalist in Zimbabwe earns a monthly salary of Z$60,000, the equivalent of about US$3. A teacher's monthly salary of Z$62,000 is enough for two days' transport to and from work.

Events that have taken place since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding on July 21 and the Power-sharing Agreement on September 15 cast doubt on ZANU (PF)'s sincerity and commitment to democratic processes:

1. The unilateral appointment of provincial governors (25 August);
2. The convening of Parliament without consent of the MDC (27 August);
3. The unilateral allocation of key ministries to ZANU-PF (10 October);
4. The swearing-in of the two Vice Presidents (13 October);
5. The continued refusal to issue MDC President with a passport (20 October);
6. The continued use of hate speech and hate language by the public media;
7. The politicization of food aid; and
8. The deployment of soldiers in preparation for by-elections in violation of the power-sharing agreement.

It seems the passport row reflects fundamental mistrust between ZANU (PF) and the MDC as the international community loses patience with Mugabe's open flouting of both the terms and the spirit of the power-sharing accord.

The ZANU (PF) leadership needs, not only to start building again, but they have to start thinking again - which is much more difficult and far more distasteful. With the old pattern broken, they have now to find out what mode of life is best suited to the new Zimbabwe.

The struggle for democracy has made it possible to produce men and women who, against all their basic sense of self-preservation, have and will voluntarily risk death for an ideal - but also in this way has produced fighters for human rights who are sure of everything and know what is "right".

In the time now ahead, a great many prejudices Zimbabweans have been taught will have to go, or be radically altered. We can accept and retain only one primary prejudice and that is that Zimbabwe is worth preserving. To that consideration, all else will for a time at least be subordinate. We must all collectively strive to reconstruct our socio-economic structures with a sense of duty and justice.

Whether we like it or not, eventually the economy will force change peacefully - or the regime will change itself through a palace or military coup - and a new dispensation will emerge.

It will not be easy: old prejudices die hard. Now that the old and corrupt structures must be replaced, our ready-reckoners for conduct within them no longer give the right answers. We must have the moral courage to think and to plan for the future generation.

That is to say to rescue the health and education systems; to get the farms working again, producing food and supplying raw materials to the manufacturing sector and ensuring the crisis does not worsen. That depends on removing price controls, improving farming production techniques and providing the banking sector with the finance needed to lend to farmers.

The best way to improve yields is through private-sector linkages and logistics, providing seeds, financing, fertiliser and knowledge to smallholder farmers. This will never happen when the government price offered for maize is miserable, offering little incentive to produce more than the immediate family's needs.

Democratic processes have come to stay and nothing will hinder change for a new Zimbabwe. The significant victory of the Movement for Democratic Change in the March 29 presidential, parliamentary and local government elections seems to have marked another cornerstone in Zimbabwean politics. The votes against the ruling ZANU (PF) party reflect that people are disgruntled with Robert Mugabe's policies.

The United States, other Western countries and international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank want eventually to re-engage with Zimbabwe and provide it with economic development assistance. However, there first needs to be concrete evidence of lasting political and economic reform, such as a return to the rule of law and a free market system, respect for human and property rights and an end to corruption.