March 14, 2009.

PATRONAGE AND HARDLINERS ARE GNU ENEMIES

The Government of National Unity is now in place and there are priorities to be met, namely food to feed seven million Zimbabweans out of a population of 12 million, resuscitation of the collapsed health and education systems, release of political prisoners and the tackling of the hyperinflation that has put industry and commerce into the doldrums. It is clear that these priorities are not a matter of negotiations and cannot be deferred for too long without rousing the ire of ordinary Zimbabweans. And yet the inclusive government has to reckon with ZANU (PF)'s embedded patronage and resistance from its hardliners.

Transparency and accountability have been clichés that were lacking in the outgoing regime. Already before the GNU settles down to serious business, South Africa, through the SADC, is demanding full inquiry into alleged disappearance of R300 million handed out to the ZANU (PF) regime in December 2008. It was reported that South African Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, and Central Bank Governor, Tito Mboweni, had refused to discuss any new loans to Zimbabwe until a full SADC Commission of Enquiry has established the alleged disappearance of the R300 million.

Zimbabwe's economy, which has unemployment of 95% and a further decimated middle class, is reeling under years of economic mismanagement by Mugabe's populist government enforced by patronage. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, in South Africa on February 20 to discuss a possible rescue package for the southern African country, said long-term recovery would require at least US$5 billion (R50 billion)  -- money Zimbabwe or its neighbours do not have.

It must have been a shock for Zimbabweans -- but hardly a surprise for political observers -- when Robert Mugabe came with extra baggage to the ministerial swearing in on February 13. With the Treasury struggling to raise funds to maintain the public service and the country experiencing cholera pandemic because of the breakdown of the health and sewage systems, one would have expected Mugabe to trim his entourage to the stipulated 15 posts.

Worried by this development, the MDC National Executive's deliberation on the inclusive government on February 27 noted, among other things, that the new Cabinet was "too big and heavy for the country". In the resolution, the MDC National Executive "restated the party's commitment to a small but efficient Cabinet to enhance accountability and fiscal prudence".

Now that Mugabe has said that the power-sharing government would be in place for about 18 months, after which fresh elections will be held, the MDC should be seen geared to create a lean Cabinet after winning the anticipated free and fair elections. At the same time, Zimbabweans can understand the need for caution now that the MDC is in this transitional government.

The GNU was supposed to have 31 ministers, 15 deputy ministers, but ZANU (PF) pitched up with 22 ministers instead of 15 for the swearing in ceremony. In the end the party muscled in eight and in exchange MDC was rewarded with others for letting in ZANU (PF)'s blue-eyed boys and girls. These extras are coming in complete with their salaries, their underlying infrastructure of secretaries and numerous staff, office furniture, Mercedes Benz allocations, their chauffeurs, unlimited fuel vouchers, security details, ancillary benefits and perks.

The power struggle among ZANU (PF) heavy weights has been showing potential it could affect the effectiveness of the inclusive government. There are those who have been trying to force the ZANU (PF) Media, Information and Publicity Minister, Webster Shamhu, to encroach into the MDC Ministry of Information Communication Technology.

Year after year, the Zimbabwean government has spent far beyond its means. That spending has been funded by borrowings, including extensive direct and disguised borrowings from the Reserve Bank. In turn, that has driven repeated extensive printing of money, substantially unsupported by national reserves. The great printing of money is one of the major factors fuelling inflation, and has irrefutably been one of the main causes of the record-breaking hyperinflation that has impoverished a majority of Zimbabweans.

With approximately 250,000 civil servants, it is no surprise that teachers' unions reported about 30,000 ghost teachers being paid by the Public Service Commission. Furthermore, there must be a major containment of the size of the armed forces. Zimbabwe has had peace with all its neighbours since Independence, and especially so since a democratic South Africa came into being in 1994.

State expenditure could be markedly reduced, without any deprivation of Zimbabwean needs, if there would be a significant reduction in the number of embassies, consulates and trade missions representing Zimbabwe abroad. Zimbabwe has a total of 38 missions. This would also reduce expenditure on foreign exchange. Two embassies would suffice within the European Union, being one in Brussels (the EU headquarters), and one in London, instead of a plethora of others. Such consolidation has been effectively achieved in the case of Scandinavia where one embassy based in Stockholm covers Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland.

It was also expected that the new Cabinet would be a mixture of talent and experience -- driven by compelling qualifications in areas of deployment -- to provide serious leadership and direction in the recovery efforts. It is unfortunate that Zimbabweans have nothing positive to say about President Robert Mugabe's choice of ministers. The wholesale retention of his entourage of deadwood ministers is a point in question. Given the dire economic situation and other urgent tasks at hand, it was astonishing for Mugabe to recycle a forest of deadwood ministers who actually presided over the current economic ruin.

Joseph Made sticks out prominently. His exploits as Agriculture Minister are on record as he forecast that Zimbabwe would not need food aid because it would harvest about 1.8 million tonnes of the staple maize in 2006, a forecast that proved false. Now revelations in the media that the Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made and Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono have been fingered in a massive farming implements scandal put the calibre of Mugabe's appointments under the microscope. It was reported that 48 tractors, harrows and two combine harvesters were recovered at Joseph Made's farm. Well-placed government sources said workers at Made's farm near Harare disclosed that their boss had stolen the farming equipment during his tenure as the Minister of Agricultural Engineering and Mechanisation last year.

The older generation of Zimbabweans will not have forgotten Emmerson Mnangagwa. He was a key government figure during the Gukurahundi massacres in the early years of Independence following another form of coalition between ZANU (PF) and PF-ZAPU after the February 1980 elections. In an uncanny reincarnation, he has ominously resurfaced as Defence Minister in the new coalition.

It was cynical in the extreme for Mugabe to recycle Mnangagwa and Sydney Sekeramayi in the security ministries where they will continue to wield instruments of coercion, while victims of this regime's excesses are still yearning for justice. Keeping such ministers is as bad as retaining Fifth Brigade commanders in the top echelons of the army.

What miracle can Zimbabweans expect from the likes of Ignatius Chombo, Stan Mudenge and Herbert Murerwa? As Minister of Local Government, Ignatius Chombo presided over the collapse of services that have led to the outbreak of cholera in Zimbabwe's cities and towns. Stan Mudenge was one of the education ministers that has brought down the education system to its knees. Murerwa's record as Finance Minister is measured by the world's highest inflation rate of over 10 billion percent according to independent analysts.

In societies where public officers are still accountable to the electors, Didymus Mutasa and Sithembiso Nyoni should have resigned together with their cabinet colleagues responsible for local government, health and education. Didymus Mutasa's rhetoric as Lands and Land Reform Minister led to the intensification of commercial farms' seizures that have led to poor harvests in the country. Mutasa even openly ignored Vice President Msika who had been struggling to stamp his authority to enforce an order he issued to him to stop evictions of remaining white farmers.

Ordinarily, a justice ministry's brief should be to deliver justice timely. The minister should derive satisfaction in the number of cases handled and concluded by the courts and not the high number of prisoners on remand. Can the Justice Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, who has been retained in his post in the new Cabinet claim satisfaction that he served the government well in this respect? Besides, Chinamasa presided over legislation of draconian laws like the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), which muzzles the media; the Public Order and Security Act (POSA), which prohibits opposition meetings without permission from the police.

During Operation Dzikisamitengo of July 2007, business people were enemies of the State and were arrested and detained. The frontline ministers like Obert Mpofu -- in charge of the National Incomes and Pricing Commission -- President Mugabe chose for his Cabinet, hail from this coterie of tinpot politicians whose respective pasts are blighted by monumental failures and serious errors of judgement.

It is foolhardy to believe that the country will be able to access resources without changing the faces and the bad policies that have contributed to the destruction of the economy. It is clear that SADC will not be able to provide the required funding to Zimbabwe and it leaves the future of Zimbabwe in the hands of the West without whose support the country's prospects are gloomy.

Zimbabwe needs about US$100 million a month (US$1.2 billion per annum) for operational expenses, half of which is the government's payroll. Its monthly receipts are about US$10 million. The Health Ministry alone is reported in need of US$700 million to resuscitate the healthcare system: there are widespread staff shortages and no medicines, hospital equipment does not work and ambulances are broken down.

In order to get that kind of budgetary support, the southern African country has to overcome the extreme scepticism of the donor community. However, with MDC and civil society political activists still in jail, and the continuing evictions of white farmers from their land, the hardliners who oppose the unity government can send a message they are still in charge and torpedo any hope of a rescue package. The UN is asking the international community to support relief efforts in the country while these hardliners are busy promoting land seizures that are calculated to further sabotage agricultural output. As long as Mugabe's cronies continue to seize farms and harass their occupants, there will be no productivity in agriculture.

The MDC's struggle for funding is exacerbated by perceptions that Mugabe remains firmly in charge -- the main barrier for Western donors. "I'm still in control and hold executive authority," Mugabe said at a recent celebration of his 85th birthday in Chinhoyi. "So nothing much has changed," he assured his supporters. It is obvious Robert Mugabe is trying to flex his muscles in an effort to show that his ZANU (PF) party is still in power. While that may resonate well in Chinhoyi, what response does the new inclusive government get from London and Washington or anywhere else the begging bowl is being held out?

Zimbabwe desperately needs a New Deal to end a decade of misery and suffering authored by President Robert Mugabe's hopelessly corrupt and incompetent ministers. The damage inflicted on the fabric of the nation and its socio-economic structures by this coterie of lazy, greedy and failed leaders is severe.

Zimbabwe is putting its hopes on the new faces from the MDC formations to deliver.

The Freaky Accident

Although the MDC has not said it suspects foul play in the freaky and horrific car accident in which Morgan Tsvangirai was injured and his wife, Susan Nyaradzo, lost her life on March 6, events around the creation of the Government of National Unity reveal a third force trying to sabotage the inclusive government. Behind Mugabe is a huge reservoir of ill-will among the ZANU (PF) hardliners who are against the MDC -- particularly those in the former Joint Operations Command and its support network. Besides, Shona religious believers suspect that Morgan Tsvangirai may have been "jinxed" (kukandirwa mamhepo). It is Shona belief that man does not die a natural death. When someone dies in the family (even if it is through a traffic accident or old age), someone is responsible.

One other reality that cannot escape the eye of an analyst is the Prime Minister's inaugural address to Parliament on March 4 in which he appeared to have stirred up a hornet's nest when he talked of openness and transparency.

"As a start, I request Mr. Speaker Sir that you ensure that the mechanism for the declaration of assets by Honourable Members is enforced. Going forward, we need to buttress this by additional measures at executive level to strengthen the fight against corruption through increased accountability and transparency by all members of our Government. In addition to requiring Members to declare their income, liabilities and assets and it would serve as a valuable framework to guide us in the execution of our duties."

This is clearly a sensitive area because most, if not all, of the incoming ZANU (PF) ministers are compromised through their two decades' involvement with a regime that has condoned corruption; there are people who used the war in the DRC and the Chiyadzwa diamonds in eastern Zimbabwe to enrich themselves. While Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's call is laudable as transparency and accountability should be the most important priorities of the transitional government, the mood among the long-serving ministers cannot be expected to be enthusiastic. There must be people behind closed doors that are wishing (varikukandira mamhepo) that the Prime Minister fails.

While at it, Morgan Tsvangirai further delivered a warning to officials in charge of security. "Our citizens have the right to express their views to us their leadership. Therefore the days of police wantonly and violently breaking up peaceful demonstrations and gatherings and needlessly imprisoning innocent Zimbabweans must come to an end. Such activities could bring the threat of prosecution not only on those arresting or interfering with such activities, but also on those that order such interference and arrest," the Prime Minister said.

These remarks, while being spoken in the House of Assembly, were widely publicised even for the benefit of those members of the high command in the army, police and prison services who have vowed not to salute the new Prime Minister.

On March 7, government media tried to apportion blame for the fatal accident on the USA even going to the extent of publishing the registration numbers of the truck involved in the accident. A British Foreign Office spokesman confirmed that London and Washington fund the project that owns the truck that veered onto the lane of the Toyota Landcruiser carrying Tsvangirai and his wife but rejected reports the driver of the truck may have fallen asleep on the wheel causing him to lose control of his vehicle.

The spokesman said: "The driver was not asleep; he was well rested and had not been drinking. He called the crash a "genuine accident". "We cannot pre-empt any investigation by giving further details at this stage."

Analysts said the crash will raise suspicions of foul play. Speculation over the cause of the accident erupted as soon as the crash was reported, due to a long history of political figures dying in suspicious road accidents in Zimbabwe. A long history of deaths of prominent political figures in mysterious road accidents only helped exacerbate suspicions over the accident. Observers cited the car crash deaths of ZANU (PF) military leader Josiah Tongogara on the eve of independence in 1979, Employment Minister Border Gezi in 1999, Defence Minister Moven Mahachi in 2001 and Elliot Manyika, a government minister and former regional governor, in December 2008.

There is no conclusion to the cause of the fatal accident, but the feeling is that regardless of the cause, Mugabe and his henchmen have blood on their hands -- blood which goes back to the period of the liberation war in Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia and will never be washed away, even if they are entirely absolved of blame for the tragic accident that shook the nation on March 6.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has moved to allay fears that the collision was a deliberate attempt on his life telling mourners outside his home in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare: "When something happens, there is always speculation but I want to say in this case, if there was any foul play, it was one in a thousand."

Wearing dark glasses and with his face still swollen, he said: "It was an accident and unfortunately it took her [Susan's] life. All of us will die, we must celebrate life. We must celebrate because we had gone through trials and tribulations together," he told the crowd including relatives, party members and worshippers from his church.

Tsvangirai's MDC party said the crash could have been avoided had the Prime Minister been travelling with a police escort. Many Zimbabweans are suspicious about Mrs Tsvangirai's death, because of past acrimony between Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe. Tsvangirai claims to have been the target of four assassination attempts including one in 1997 when he said assailants tried to throw him out of his office window. He also survived a brutal beating by security forces on March 11, 2007.

Members of a team sent immediately by the MDC to photograph the scene were all arrested by police. The arrests by the police have prompted fresh suspicions that the crash was more than a terrible accident. The speculation surrounding the tragic events has seen several organisations call for independent inquiries, including South Africa's Christian Democratic Party, which called the circumstances surrounding the crash ‘deeply suspicious'.

"We are deeply suspicious as to the cause of the crash coming less than a month after Mr Tsvangirai was sworn in as Prime Minister and with Mr Tsvangirai having been a victim of multiple political assassination attempts," said the party in a statement released on March 8.

At Susan Tsvangirai's memorial service on March 10, Mugabe expressed grief and even referred to Tsvangirai by his first name -- a rare moment for a person who has shown open disdain for the Prime Minister. "We are sincerely saddened by the death of Susan and we hope that Morgan will remain strong, I plead with you to accept it; it's the hand of God," Mugabe said. He called for an end to violence and said Zimbabweans needed to work peacefully together.

Zimbabweans, both in the Diaspora and at home are listening. It is always difficult to know if Mugabe is sincere when he uses words of peace. Frequently in the past, he has called for peace through the microphone, while at the same time ordering violent reprisals against political opponents. Mugabe's regime has a long history of using food as a political weapon, feeding its supporters alone while starving rival followers. It also has a record of banning food distribution by NGOs among the population considered to be politically hostile.

There are people who are extremely sceptical and say the sequence of events is very strange and seem too well orchestrated. The sceptics say it is delusional to think that ZANU (PF) has suddenly changed, after years of violence, torture, beatings and deliberately inflicted starvation of opponents.

A raging battle between Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe for control of the power-sharing government the two formed in February has prompted speculation over the car crash. A highly explosive situation is building up in the Home Affairs Ministry, which is now run by two ministers -- one MDC, the other ZANU (PF). The MDC Minister, Giles Mutsekwa, a former army major, is the lone opposition figure in the ministry, which is in charge of the Registrar-General's department and the Zimbabwe Republic Police. Tobaiwa Mudede is typical of a Mugabe-era mandarin blocking change and running a less-than-efficient operation. Mutsekwa also has to grapple with both his ZANU (PF) counterpart, Kembo Mohadi, and the hard-line police Commissioner General, Augustine Chihuri, a bitter opponent of change.

Relations between the MDC and Mugabe's ZANU (PF) party remain tense, with MDC ministerial nominee Roy Bennett having remained in custody (despite court orders to release him) accused of links to an alleged plot to kill Robert Mugabe. He was subsequently released on bail by the Supreme Court on March 11 after having been in prison since February 13.

The continued detention of MDC Treasurer Roy Bennett and the arrest of a magistrate who tried to grant him bail has strained relations in the new government and raised fresh doubts on whether the inclusive government will last. On March 5, the police arrested a senior magistrate in the eastern border city of Mutare for ordering the release of Roy Bennett. Provincial magistrate, Livingstone Chipadze, was being charged with criminal abuse of office after he permitted the Deputy Agriculture Minister-designate to pay bail money and comply with other bail conditions which would have allowed him to be freed.

Human rights lawyer, Trust Maanda, criticised the arrest of Chipadze which he said was illegal and a serious blow to the administration of justice. "It's illegal to arrest a magistrate for doing his job," Maanda said. "If they (the State) are not happy with his ruling they are supposed to appeal to a higher court instead of arresting a magistrate. It is frightening if a magistrate is arrested because he has passed a judgment that is not popular with the State."

After Chipadze gave Bennett permission to deposit the bail sum as well as his passport with the clerk of court, a warrant for the MDC politician's liberty was issued. But a senior prison official, Zondai Nyatsanza, took away the warrant before Bennett could be released from jail.

Furthermore, a number of law officers from the Attorney General's office have alleged that the Attorney-General, Johannes Tomana, and Director of Public Prosecutions, Florence Ziyambi, were working with some security chiefs to derail the inclusive government. The law officers made the allegation in an e-mail letter written to the Deputy Minister of Justice, Jessie Majome, Beatrice Mtetwa in her capacity as the representative of the Law Society of Zimbabwe (LSZ) and various law firms.

The e-mail with the subject matter headline, "Inclusive Government cannot work without a complete overhaul of the AG's office," laid some explicit under-the-carpet dealings going on between the AG's office and the service chiefs. The officials said their ability to carry out their duties as public service lawyers had been heavily compromised by the pressure put on them by Tomana and Ziyambi. The officers emphasised that there was need for a complete overhaul of the AG's office.

The officers said Ziyambi's appointment involved the CIO and Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) Commissioner General, Augustine Chihuri, who are said to have ensured that Ziyambi was not prosecuted when she was accused of corruption. Ziyambi is said to be now earmarked for the position of Deputy Attorney General, Crime, and the lobbying is said to have been done by Chihuri and the CIO in a bid to strategically position her into a position that would give her the leverage to effectively frustrate the inclusive government through legal means. But the Minister of Justice, Patrick Chinamasa, is believed to be resisting the pressure since he is doubtful of Ziyambi's capabilities in that position.

"Pressure from Chihuri is very heavy as Ziyambi is known to have been heavily involved in the abductions of MDC and civil society activists and she has to be rewarded for this," said the officers.

The officers said Ziyambi has also managed to frustrate the law through working with some magistrates and judges, whose names were however not given, and making sure that independent judges were not put on the roll.

A prominent Harare lawyer who requested anonymity said, "The contents of that document which is now making rounds in the legal profession is nothing compared to the reality of what is happening on the ground; there are a lot of things I can identify with in that document."

After just a month in office, the unity government between Tsvangirai and Mugabe has raised hopes that Zimbabwe could finally emerge from its crisis. However, analysts say the international community would have to provide substantial aid if the southern African country is to recover from nearly a decade of acute recession. The United States, Britain and other Western powers with the resources to bankroll Zimbabwe's recovery, have said they want to see evidence the unity government is committed to implementing genuine political and economic reforms before they can provide aid.

For now, though, PM Morgan Tsvangirai finds himself caught between President Robert Mugabe, his hardliners and highly sceptical donors who have deep pockets, but are leery of reaching into them until they believe Tsvangirai can deliver change. As the sceptics may say in Shona, "Tozotenda maruva tadya shakata." (Literally translated: We will thank the flowers after we have eaten fruits from a cork tree). In other words, some Zimbabweans are saying they have no trust in anything until there are tangible results.

Nevertheless, President Mugabe's speech at a church service in Harare for Susan Nyaradzo Tsvangirai may prove the sceptics wrong. ZANU (PF) and MDC supporters mixed freely at the funeral and these images -- unthinkable just a few weeks ago -- have touched a real nerve, giving hope to even those who were least hopeful about the inclusive government.